Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.138209 0.161822 0.187807 0.218461 0.253572 0.292463 0.338739
2026-02-08 0.096474 0.127491 0.165393 0.214820 0.277243 0.353097 0.451850
2026-02-15 0.071600 0.103853 0.146535 0.206521 0.287906 0.393623 0.540319
2026-02-22 0.061492 0.096132 0.144979 0.217792 0.322221 0.464976 0.672861
2026-03-01 0.049484 0.082968 0.133049 0.211834 0.330655 0.500678 0.759099
2026-03-08 0.040018 0.071628 0.121554 0.204075 0.334332 0.528525 0.835149
2026-03-15 0.033289 0.063316 0.113192 0.199435 0.341304 0.560738 0.919181
2026-03-22 0.029390 0.059042 0.110561 0.203279 0.361426 0.614010 1.038904
2026-03-29 0.026915 0.056841 0.111002 0.212055 0.390091 0.682656 1.187737
2026-04-05 0.024144 0.053574 0.109024 0.216189 0.411019 0.740092 1.322501
2026-04-12 0.021335 0.049728 0.105392 0.216750 0.425493 0.787558 1.443890
2026-04-19 0.018850 0.046100 0.101629 0.216478 0.438172 0.832562 1.563908
2026-04-26 0.016390 0.042150 0.096792 0.213759 0.446433 0.871167 1.677127
2026-05-03 0.014194 0.038399 0.091846 0.210229 0.452807 0.906968 1.788359
2026-05-10 0.011962 0.034116 0.085109 0.202095 0.449178 0.923811 1.866088
2026-05-17 0.011419 0.033904 0.087320 0.213148 0.485001 1.017305 2.092031
2026-05-24 0.009821 0.030654 0.082107 0.207305 0.485382 1.042658 2.190946
2026-05-31 0.008350 0.027429 0.076450 0.199696 0.481127 1.058330 2.271960
2026-06-07 0.007248 0.025000 0.072356 0.195147 0.482915 1.085997 2.378069
2026-06-14 0.006678 0.024019 0.071784 0.198916 0.503453 1.153339 2.567713
2026-06-21 0.006371 0.023784 0.073126 0.207522 0.535702 1.247218 2.817041
2026-06-28 0.005899 0.022930 0.072682 0.211576 0.557746 1.320968 3.029395
2026-07-05 0.005345 0.021681 0.070960 0.212126 0.571531 1.377854 3.209947